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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions declining and recent underperformers rising together. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

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